Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 2.250480 2.390644 2.538885 2.708003 2.896415 3.100831 3.340686
2025-08-10 2.032416 2.222705 2.434066 2.688530 2.989735 3.339038 3.781082
2025-08-17 1.884097 2.100140 2.348072 2.657856 3.040813 3.507611 4.134541
2025-08-24 1.771194 2.002922 2.275577 2.626314 3.075347 3.645902 4.452799
2025-08-31 1.695751 1.941737 2.237575 2.628183 3.144578 3.826967 4.842131
2025-09-07 1.638962 1.897697 2.215043 2.644147 3.228714 4.030837 5.285834
2025-09-14 1.566023 1.828281 2.154710 2.604154 3.230819 4.116776 5.561416
2025-09-21 1.500360 1.764081 2.096523 2.561545 3.223441 4.184865 5.814115
2025-09-28 1.438684 1.701742 2.036945 2.512249 3.201049 4.225857 6.024513
2025-10-05 1.416994 1.689826 2.042660 2.552477 3.310203 4.477078 6.634206
2025-10-12 1.397658 1.679664 2.049516 2.593704 3.422794 4.744489 7.323616
2025-10-19 1.380328 1.671045 2.057477 2.636146 3.539568 5.030963 8.111373
2025-10-26 1.343079 1.634631 2.025990 2.619691 3.563695 5.164307 8.622648
2025-11-02 1.307745 1.599486 1.994681 2.601539 3.583366 5.291685 9.152382
2025-11-09 1.271451 1.561624 1.957766 2.572483 3.582175 5.379634 9.611776
2025-11-16 1.237249 1.525446 1.921706 2.542580 3.576871 5.458460 10.069211
2025-11-23 1.214587 1.504524 1.906675 2.544352 3.625509 5.647241 10.867817
2025-11-30 1.197134 1.490228 1.900533 2.559488 3.698190 5.893130 11.911708
2025-12-07 1.165789 1.455249 1.862593 2.521564 3.672850 5.931840 12.355448
2025-12-14 1.135352 1.420735 1.824204 2.481137 3.640185 5.951299 12.748645
2025-12-21 1.104635 1.385049 1.782986 2.434338 3.592835 5.933886 13.018988
2025-12-28 1.098001 1.383748 1.793182 2.472531 3.706476 6.289769 14.747756
2026-01-04 1.091838 1.382836 1.803758 2.511651 3.824893 6.676273 16.848583